USING THE ARIMA FORECASTING METHOD

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to forecast sales in the next period of a mini-market called Segar, which sells a variety of essential products to its local community in the residential area of Bogor, West Java.  The focus product is bottled mineral water 600 ml. of a particular brand.  This research uses quantitative data, the data collection techniques being library research, field research, interviews and observations.  Data processing analysis provides useful information in answering statistical problems.  Analysis techniques include the method known as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), using SPSS and Minitab software.  Versions of ARIMA used in this research are ARIMA 1.0.0, ARIMA 0.0.1, and ARIMA 1.0.1.  Using these methods, the forecasting result for the month of November 2013 was 235.750 or 236 bottles of this mineral water.  The best approach was found to be ARIMA 1.0.0 because the calculated result was obtained by MS (Means of Square), the smallest amounting to 328.89.